GRH Kompania Czerwonego Smoka

Mesil

Jakby ktoś był zainteresowany naszym małym filmikiem z wigilii Very Happy

trochę ciemno ale widać wszystko Smile

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Enfi8C2YEs

Piotr herbu Grzymała

Nadal jestem przy tym żebyśmy nie przyznawali się z jakiego bractwa jesteśmy Very Happy

...oczywiście żart, bardzo fajne Smile

gwałciwoj

oj tam nie przyznawać... bo to niby tylko u nas takie rzeczy Razz

przyznawać się jak najbardziej jeno z rozwagą i bez przechwalania Wink

z resztą, kto to z youtuba po usłyszeniu słów "No... to jest właśnie nasza, prawda, wigilia bractwowa..." skapnie się ze w ogóle jesteśmy z jakiegoś bractwa rycerskiego Razz

Olga · Gość

I get from a DCF analysis of Shaikan, circa $3.90/bbl (recoverable, 30% raeivercbolity, 10% discount, after all taxes incl infrastructure tax, $90/bbl Brent with a $7/bbl discount for pipeline transit fees from Kurdistan to an international port and a small bit of discount for Shaikan being classed as heavy oil).However GKP has only a 51% working interest in the Shaikan license after KRG take up their 15% and after 20% BIR awarded.Thus for a 18 billion boe Shaikan STOOIP GKP value is 18 billion bbls x 30% x $3.9/bbl x 51% net working interest= $11.4 billion or $13/share (878 million shares)= a38.40/share before I apply an appropriate dollop of political (50%) and technical risk (70% chance of technical success) to this number=a32.94/share (assuming DGA actually upgrade this to 18 billion bbl via CPR.I add approx a31 for all other assets on same/similar basis and I just can't see beyond, at very best, a37 to a38/share in current political climate.Sure, a Chinese NOC or Semi NOC is not chasing high IRRs and may apply a lower discount factor to value and may even use >$110/bbl oil prices etc but he, at the moment, would only pay a small premium over what Western Oil Co e.g BP/Shell/Exxon/Conoco Etc would pay. I am just not seeing > a38 at the moment ..and I would bite off the hand of any bid>a36 in current climate. For avoidance of any doubt I am a GKP bull with plenty of skin in this game and not a deramper .Joe